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Day 1 | 12 March 2024

8:00

Registration and Morning Refreshments

8:40

Chairperson’s Opening Address

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Emma Watkins, Head of Exposure Management & Aggregation, Lloyd’s

MARKET UPDATE

8:50

Opening Keynote: Reviewing current and emerging market challenges facing the CAT risk industry 

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  • Regulatory outlook and reflections on the market in 2023  

  • Unpacking observations on non-nat cat exposure management 

Lisa Coomey, Lead for Catastrophe Risk & Exposure Management, Bank of England 

9:10

Panel Discussion: Retrospective look at key extreme events and risks in 2023

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  • ​​A deep dive into the key extreme Nat-CAT events of 2023, including: 

- US SCS 

- NZ Flood & Cyclone 

- California Flooding 

- Italy Flooding and Hail 

- Turkey Earthquake  

- Morrocco Earthquake  

- Global wildfire, including Canada and Hawaii 

  • Gain insights into how the models fared and the market’s response to these extreme events 

  • Considering the drivers in key extreme events beyond climate change 

  • Reflecting on your view of risk in light of 2023 events 

  • Unpacking the challenges of inflation for catastrophe risk management in near future  

(Moderator) Jessica Turner, Head of Risk Analytics, MS Amlin 

Marc Melsen, Managing Director, Guy Carpenter  

Tim Edwards, EMEA Head of Catastrophe Analytics, Tiger Risk Partners 

Michal Lörinc, Head of Catastrophe Insight Team, Aon Impact Forecasting 

Maurizio Savina, VP – Model Product Management, Moody’s RMS 

10:00

Lightning Address: Xceedance Risk Data Platform

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Xceedance Risk Data Platform RDP - an innovative AI-powered tool for insurance organisations to manage risk locations. Designed to address the complexities of locations that come in various third-party formats like Schedule of Values (SOV), programs, and bordereaux across diverse business lines. 

 

Justin Davies, SVP, Head of Commercial Insurance & Distribution, UK, Xceedance 

10:05

Morning Tea

10:35

Partner Presentation: How Catastrophe Model Development is Responding to an Evolving World: Strategies and Challenges 

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Historical losses from natural hazards show considerable inter-annual variation and as a result, cannot be relied on to give accurate loss estimates for the year ahead. Over the last 37 years, Catastrophe Models have bridged this data gap and have become a well-established means of assessing loss exceedance probabilities for extreme natural hazard events.  

 

However, as the world around us evolves, so does the risk to extreme events. Changes in the atmospheric and oceanic systems as a result of climate change, as well as changes in land use and the built world raise many questions for catastrophe model vendors and users alike. In this session we explore some of the challenging questions the industry is asking of today's catastrophe models and we'll explore the varying levels of confidence we have in being able to capture different aspects of our evolving world. Using examples from wildfire, flood and extra-tropical cyclone peril models, we'll showcase how Verisk is taking different strategies to address these questions and build models that accurately reflect a near-present view.    

 

Caroline McMullan, Director, Research & Modelling, Verisk 

Technical and Advanced Stream / Technical Expertise 

The technical and advanced stream dives deep into the intricacies and complexities of today’s CAT risk industry. The content is designed for attendees with a comprehensive understanding of the industry. 

CLIMATE SCIENCE & RISK MODELLING INNNOVATION 

11:10

Presentation: Navigating Risk Pricing in an Uncertain World

  • Accommodating for underrepresented markets in risk pricing  

  • Leveraging technology in risk assessments to increase accuracy. 

  • Gain insights into capturing non-stationarity in claims costs and hazards when quantifying underlying and emerging risk 

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Simos Koumoutsaris, Global Head of Cat R&D, SCOR 

Emerging Stream / Emerging Professionals Stream 

The emerging stream explores the fundamentals and basics of CAT risk management and modelling. The content is designed for attendees with 0-3 years’ industry experience. 

CLIMATE SCIENCE & RISK MODELLING INNNOVATION 

11:10

Presentation: Understanding Climate Science and Catastrophe Modelling in a Changing World

  • The role of climate modelling in understanding severe weather 

  • How to incorporate climate science data in CAT modelling? 

  • Grappling uncertainty in CAT modelling during a time of intensified perils 

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Ioana Dima-West, Senior Manager – Science and Climate Change, AXA XL 

11:30

Panel Discussion: Understanding the latest Climate Science and Impact on Modelling Systemic Risk in Catastrophes

  • Determining climate attribution: What role does climate change and teleconnections have in risk frequency? 

  • Factoring in the latest climate science into CAT modelling to more accurately capture and respond to risk 

  • Flood models 

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(Moderator) David Singh, Head of Climate Analytics and Exposure Management, WTW 
 
Alexander Allman,
Head of Georisks/Corporate Underwriting, Munich Re 
 
 
Dr Christopher Allen,
Divisional Director, Gallagher Re 

11:30

Mini Workshop: A Concise Guide to Regulations in Risk Modelling

  • Understanding the role and impact of regulations in catastrophe risk modelling  

  • Determining the types of forms and scenarios for regulations in CAT risk modelling 

  • Gain insights into best practices for aligning with regulations, including solvency II, and CAT modelling 

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Vanessa Jones, Head of Exposure Management, Dale Underwriting Partners

  

Callum Savage, Head of Exposure Management, Asta 

12:20

Networking Lunch

1:20

Panel Discussion: The Future of Risk Transfer: Parametric Insurance and Alternative Risk Transfer 
In an era of rapidly evolving risks, exposures and technologies, alternative risk transfer such as parametric products can be an agile solution. Join industry leaders who explore the foundations of parametric insurance. Discover how this approach can be used to mitigate risks and support traditional Nat-Cat covers. 

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(Moderator) Lisa Coomey, Lead for Catastrophe Risk & Exposure Management, Bank of England 

Toby Behrmann, Head of London Market & Private Public Partnerships, AXA Climate 


Simon Edwards, Head of Parametric Underwriting, Generali Global Corporate & Commercial 

Dr Raveem Ismail, Head of Parametric Underwriting, Africa Specialty Risks 

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INTERACTIVE ROUNDTABLES

2:00

Introduction to Breakout Sessions

2:05

Interactive Breakout Sessions 

Attendees will be able to participate in two breakout discussions of their choosing.

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Breakout A:
Manage Risk with Global GfK Boundary Data & CRESTA Zones – a Discussion of the Needs with the Industry

Julia Kloé, Senior Sales Consultant Reinsurance, GfK 
 

Andreas Wicht, Team Lead Cartography, GfK

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Breakout B:
Strikes, Riots and Civil Commotion Modelling in an Age of Political Uncertainty 

In this talk we will review recent political unrest events such as the French riots and show how Verisk is modelling this risk worldwide, backed by historical insurance loss data and predicting how this risk could change over the next year. We’ll also touch on upcoming enhancemen
ts including a block-level assessment of the United States and the development of a stochastic model. 

 

Shane Latchman, Vice President and Managing Director, Verisk 
 

Sam Haynes, Head of Data and Analytics, Verisk Maplecroft 

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Breakout C:
Advancing Earnings Risk Management with Catastrophe Modelling


Rob Stevenson, Sr. Director – Business Development, Moody’s RMS

Giovanni Leoncini, Assistant Director – Senior Product Manager, Moody’s RMS 

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Breakout D:
Flood modelling - Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Validation, Cutting-Edge Research and External Peer Review 

Distinguishing claims of credibility, peer-review, and research authority within commercial modelling presents a significant challenge for industry professionals. In this session, Fathom’s experts will outline the different considerations needed when assessing contributions to academia. They will underscore the vital role that peer-review play, whilst also addressing the limitations inherent in the publication process. 

Dr Matthew Jones, Chief Product Officer, Fathom 

Dr Christopher Sampson, Co-Founder and COO, Fathom 
 

Dr Jeffery Neal, Professor of Hydrology | Turing Fellow, University of Bristol 
 

Dr Oliver Wing, Chief Research Officer, Fathom 

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Breakout E:
Practical Applications Of Parametric Insur
ance 

Building resilience and adapting to the future challenges presented by climate change are a key focus for the insurance and financial sectors. Parametric insurance is a realistic alternative – especially for countries where flooding is frequent and severe. 

In this workshop, JBA Risk Management and Securis Investment Partners share practical, real-life examples of how parametric insurance can help.



Hubert Bast, MSc, Technical Director, JBA Risk Management 

Dr Paul Wilson,
Consultant: Disaster Risk Financing & Partner, Securis Investment Partners 

3:10

Afternoon Tea

DATA, INSURTECH & AI

3:40

Presentation: Keeping it Real…Time: Enabling the Next Generation of Exposure Monitoring

In this session you will learn about the various use cases advancing the exposure management agenda, from real-time tracking of assets and event alerting, to enabling custom zone aggregations and analytics. Discover how leading insurers in the aviation and marine sector are leveraging the power of structured data and enabling next generation exposure monitoring

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Richard Archer, Chief Strategy Officer, Insurwave 

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Tom Williams, Senior Client Success Manager, Insurwave

4:00

Panel Discussion: Data Science in Catastrophe Risk Modelling – Exploring AI, Predictive Analytics and Machine Learning

  • Addressing the question of data: What data capabilities are required to effectively implement predictive analytics and machine learning? 

  • On the horizon: What role does technology have in next generation CAT models, and what does that look like?  

  • Best practices to implement new technologies and large language models in your workflow 

  • Exploring the effects of AI in model adaptation real-time modelling  

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(Moderator) Matthew Grant, CEO, InsTech 
 
Marek Shafer, Managing Director, Vave 
 
Nicholas Robert, Emerging Risks Modeller, Lloyd’s 
 
Hassan Masoomi, SVP, Global Analytics R&D, Gallagher Re

Aditya Sanghvi, Innovation Manager, CFC 

Todd Rissel,
Chief Executive Officer and Co Founder, e2Value 

4:50

Lightning Address by AdvantageGo 

4:55

Chairperson’s Closing Remarks 

5:05

End of Day One and Networking Drinkss

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Day 2 | 13 March 2024

8:00

Registration and Morning Refreshments

8:40

Chairperson’s Opening Address

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Emma Watkins, Head of Exposure Management & Aggregation, Lloyd’s

CAT RISK MANAGEMENT & MODELLING INNOVATION

8:50

Florida Hurricane Model Comparison

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​Data from Florida Hurricane Commission Submissions will be compared between model vendors and differences due to model assumptions discussed. This will include:

  • Landfall frequency by region and category, and distribution of number of landfalls per year 

  • Loss Exceedance estimates for Notional and FHFC exposure 

  • Hypothetical event vulnerability curves and regional vulnerability 

  • 4 Historical losses 

(Moderator) Elizabeth Harris, VP Research and Development, Ariel Re 
 
Tal Paschal, Product Manager, CoreLogic 
 
Jeff Waters, Staff Product Manager, Model Product Management, Moody’s RMS 
 
Tim Johnson, PhD, Principal Engineer, Senior Manager, Verisk  

 
Glen Daraskevich, Senior Vice President, Karen Clark & Company 

Radovan Drinka,
Global Head of Tropical Cyclone Model Development, Aon Impact Forecasting

9:40

Panel Discussion: Diving into the End-User Perspective

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  • Reflections and Lessons learnt: How did recent events sit in the models? 

  • Unpacking Version 23 Hurricane Models, and comparing to previous versions 

(Moderator) Dr Martin Frischknecht, Senior Researcher, PartnerRe 

Dana Foley, Head of Catastrophe Research, Chaucer Group  

Chris Weller, Head of Exposure Management, Inigo Insurance 

10:20

Partner Presentation: Enhancing European Weather Risk Modelling 

Windstorm and severe convective storm (SCS) events in Europe have caused significant damage in recent years: Windstorm Ciaran in 2023, the SCS events of 2022 in France and 2023 in Italy. Seasons like these highlight the impact of weather volatility and how the risk is evolving. The Impact Forecasting Europe Windstorm and SCS models are based on the latest climate science and lessons learnt from past events. We’ll demonstrate how the models are used by (re)insurers for event response, risk selection, portfolio modelling and regulatory submissions. 

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Alexandros Georgiadis, Head of Weather Risk Modelling EMEA, Aon Impact Forecasting 

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Aidan Brocklehurst, Catastrophe Model Developer, Aon Impact Forecasting 

10:40

Morning Tea

CYBER RISK EXPOSURE & MODELLING 

11:10

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Partner Presentation: A Cyber Modelling Odyssey: The Journey Towards Maturity 

Bethany Vohlers, Cyber Model & Product Specialist, Moody’s RMS 

11:30

Panel Discussion: The Intersection of Cyber & Catastrophe Risk – Exploring new Frontiers in Modelling and Accumulation Management

  • Discover strategies on implementing innovative approaches to cyber risk modelling 

  • How to quantify and accumulate cyber risks in a time of heightened uncertainty  

  • Overview of the lessons learned from last 12 months in cyber risk modelling 

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(Moderator) Sarah Payne, Cyber Cat Modelling Manager, Cyber Analytics, Aon
 
Souki Chahid, Head of Cyber Analytics – UK & International, Guy Carpenter 
 
Dora Koutsoukou, Global Head of Cyber Risk Management, Liberty Mutual Insurance

INTERACTIVE BREAKOUT SESSIONS 

12:10

Introduction to Breakout sessions

12:15

Interactive Breakout Sessions 

Attendees will be able to participate in two breakout discussions of their choosing.

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Breakout A: Validating and Calibrating Flood Models 

Petr Puncochar, Head of Flood Model Development, Aon Impact Forecasting   

 
Breakout B:
Leveraging Software Solutions for Better Risk Accumulation Management and Reporting
 
Richard Archer, Chief Strategy Officer, Insurwave 

Chris Weller,
Head of Exposure Management, Inigo Insurance 

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Breakout C:
Improving Underwriting & Pricing Efficiency with Automated Solutions: Opportunities and Challenges

Nicola Turner, COO & Co-founder, Scrub AI 

Breakout D:

How do we Solve the Workflow Challenges of Adopting New Models for a more Thorough View of Risk in a Changing Climate? 

James Lay,
Commercial Director, Head of Nasdaq Risk Modelling, Nasdaq 

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Breakout E:
A New Operating Model for Global Insurers: CAT/EM being a Profit Generating Business

 

Rob Bartlett, Co-Founder and CEO, Big Ticket  
 

Tim Bird, Co-Founder, Product & Operations, Big Ticket  

1:20

Networking Lunch

2:20

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Presentation: AI Advances in Catastrophe Modelling

The AI revolution has begun and is having a transformative effect across wide ranging industries.  In this presentation Dr Dave Wood will discuss emerging opportunities to leverage AI in catastrophe modelling, including how JBA Risk Management are using these techniques to improve their models.

Dr David Wood, BSc MSc PhD, Head of Product Development, Specialist in Artificial Intelligence, Data Science, and Software Development, JBA Risk Management

Technical and Advanced Stream / Technical Expertise 

The technical and advanced stream dives deep into the intricacies and complexities of today’s CAT risk industry. The content is designed for attendees with a comprehensive understanding of the industry. 

CAT MODEL INNOVATION & CHALLENGES 

Emerging Stream / Emerging Professionals Stream 

The emerging stream explores the fundamentals and basics of CAT risk management and modelling. The content is designed for attendees with 0-3 years’ industry experience

CORE MODEL SHOWCASE 

2:40

How to Evaluate Cat Modeling vis-à-vis Actual Experience 

  • Comparing recent cat losses to cat loss budgets Decoding reality of recent cat loss events – what was expected and what was a surprise? 

  • How to include forward-looking cat loss trends proactively in cat modeling? 

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Balz Grollimund, Head Catastrophe Perils, Swiss Re

3:00

Revisiting History with Counterfactual Analysis

  • Alternative ways of revisiting history to understand risk 

  • Looking at history through an “expected loss” lens 

  • Using the Reask model for a second set of eyes on the “Hurricane Drought” of 2006-2016 

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Richard Dixon, Head of Catastrophe Research, Inigo Insurance 

2:40

Mini Workshop: Validating Catastrophe Models for Enhanced Risk Management 

  • Delve into key components and importance of a well-structured validation process for catastrophe models. 

  • Examine the practical applications of materiality criteria, encompassing loss, hazard, and vulnerability components, in the model validation process. 

  • Uncover strategies for applying and integrating your unique perspective on risk into catastrophe modeling and risk management practices. 

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Dr Nigel Winspear, Head of Natural Catastrophe Analytics Research, Sompo International 

3:20

Afternoon Tea 

3:50

Panel Discussion: Incorporating Climate Change Projections into Flood Catastrophe Models

  • How can climate change predictions build resilience of catastrophe risks in flood modelling  

  • Considering the effect of natural variability in Flood Catastrophe Risk and Modelling 

  • Including climate change projections in modelling to consider multiple scenarios and uncertainties.

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(Moderator) Dr Matthew Priestley, Science Engagement Fellow, Royal Meteorological Society; Research Fellow, University of Exeter 
 
Nalan Senol Cabi, VP, Head of Catastrophe Model Research, Arch Insurance Group
 
Stephen Jewson, Researcher in Weather, Climate and Natural Catastrophe Risk; CEO, Lambda Climate Research

Emily White,
Head of Catastrophe and Climate Analytics, Flood Re 

Dr Oliver Wing, Chief Research Officer, Fathom 

4:30

Chairperson’s Closing Remarks 

4:50

End of Summit

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